Summary Report Tracer Study of S & T Graduates who passed out from universities in Sri Lanka (1998/1999) Prepared by: S & T Manpower Information System Unit National Science Foundation •47/5, Vidya Mw Colombo 7 Sri Lanka June 2002 Tracer Study of S & T Graduates who passed out from universities in Sri Lanka (1998/1999) R.A.A.D. Gunawardena (Researcher) B.Balakumar (Manager) B.H.P.K. Thillakeweera (Statistical Officer) S & T Manpower Information System Unit National Science Foundation 47/5, Vidya MW Colombo 7 Sri Lanka Tel. 01-675841 Fax. 01-675841 E-mail asha@nsf.ac.lk June 2002 mailto:asha@nsf.ac.lk Foreword The Tracer Study of graduates who had passed out in the years 1998 and 1999 was carried out with a view to getting an in-depth understanding of the graduate labour market and forecasting the future demand of.graduates in different disciplines of study. We feel that the study has produced useful findings for planners and other interested groups to understand the current trends in graduate employment in the country. As it is planned to publish these findings as a journal article with a more detailed analysis, only a limited analysis is provided in this report. Several shortcomings have been identified while conducting this study. However, some of them could not be avoided due to a limitation of resources The next attempt is planned at conducting a sample survey and generating more qualitative analysis. Your comments and suggestions on this study arc most welcome. List of Figures Fig.4 : Actual Output of S&T graduates (1998 & 1999) & the number of respondent graduates. Fig.7.1: Distribution of respondents among districts. Fig.7.2: Current employment status of graduates Fig.7.2.5.1: Employed graduates according to gender Fig 7.2.5.2: Current employment status according to gender Fig 7.3.1: Management level of currently employed graduates Fig 7.3.3: Income levels of employed graduates Fig 7.3.3.1: Income levels of employed graduates by gender Fig. 7.3.5.1: Waiting time of graduates according to the degree course Fig.7.4.1: Unemployed graduates according to the degree course Fig 7.6: Main sources of employment information List of Tables Tabic. 4: Status of responses 5 Table 7.3.2.1: Graduate employment-Sector of employment by degree course 12 Table 7.3.2.2: Graduate employment-Sector of employment by income group 13 Table 7.3.3.2: Graduate employment- income levels by degree course 15 Table 7.3.4: Main functions of the occupations of graduates 15 Table 7.3.5.1: Waiting time of graduates according to the degree course 16 Table 7.3.5.2: Waiting time of graduates according to the level of achievement 18 at the final examination Table 7.3.6: Major reasons for the failure to obtain permanent employment. 18 Table 7.4.2.: Views regarding their failure in obtaining permanent 20 employment Table 7.7: Obstacles faced by graduates in finding suitable employment. 22 Table 9.1: Requirement of Science and Technical Professionals, 1994-2000 I Base Line Scenario Table 9.2: Additional Requirement Over 1994: Base-Line Scenario II Table 9.3: Requirement of Science and Technical Professionals, 1994-2000 III high growth scenario Table 9.4: Additional Requirement Over 1994: high growth scenario IV Table of Contents 1 Introduction 1-2 1.1 Study on Manpower requirements based on economic growth. 1 1.2 Tracer study of University S& T graduates 2 1.3 Current Study 2 2. Objectives 2 2.1 Specific Objectives 3 3 Scope of the study 3 4 Methodology 3-5 5 Assumptions 5 6 Limitations 6 7 Summary of the findings 6-27 7.1 Basic characteristics of responded graduates 6 7.2 Current Employment Status 7 7.2.1 Employed graduates 7 7.2.2 Unemployed graduates 7 7.2.3 Graduates pursuing further studies 7 7.2.4 Self employed graduates 7 7.2.5 Current employment status and gender 8 7.2.6 Achievement at the final examination and current employment status 9 7.2.7 Current employment status and degree course 9 7.3 Currently Employed Graduates 10 7.3.1 Management Level 10 7.3.1.1 Management Level and Income 11 7.3.2 Sector of employment 11 7.3.2.1 Sector of employment and degree course 11 7.3.2.2 Sector of employment and income 12 7.3.3 Income levels 13 7.3.3.1 Income level and gender 14 7.3.3.2 Income level and degree course 14 7.3.4 Main functions of the occupation 15 7.3.5 Waiting time 16 7.3.5.1 Degree course and waiting time 16 7.3.5.2 Waiting time and achievement at the final examination 17 7.3.6 View of temporary employed graduates regarding their 18 failure in obtaining permanent employment 7.4 Unemployed Graduates 18 7.4.1 Unemployed graduates by degree course 18 7.4.2 Views regarding their failure in obtaining permanent 19 employment 7.5 Self Employed Graduates 20 7.6 Main Sources of Employment Information 20 7.7 Obstacles faced by graduates in finding suitable employment 21 7.8 Projections of demand for S & T graduates in 2002,2003 & 2004 22 7.8.1 Methodology 22 7.8.2 Analysis 24 7.8.2.1 Estimated absorption rates 24 7.8.2.2 Estimated Outturn /intake ratio 25 7.8.2.3 Projected Outturn 25 7.8.2.4 Estimation of Annual Demand 26 7.8.3 Limitations 26 7.8.3.1 Lack of availability of key information 26 7.8.3.2 Lack of consistency of data 27 7.8.3.3 Institutional formalities 27 7.8.4 Assumptions 27 7.8.5 Findings 28 8 Discussion 28-31 9 Annex -1 M V 10 Annex-2 v « x 11 Annex-3 x Executive Summary This study was carried out to collect and analyse career information of Science &Technology (S&T) graduates, taking into account graduates who passed out from all the universities in Sri Lanka, excluding Jaffna and South Eastern Universities, during the years 1998/1999. The overall objective of this study was to gain an in-depth understanding of the labour market of recently passed out graduates and to forecast the requirement / demand of graduates in the different academic streams in the field of Science & Technology namely in the stream of Science, Engineering and Agriculture. Data was collected from the graduates who passed out in 1998 and 1999. Contact information of graduates was obtained from the relevant faculties of the universities. A structured questionnaire accompanied by a self addressed stamped envelope was posted to each and every graduate. The questionnaire dealt with the current employment status, sector of employment, management level, salary structure, waiting time for first paid employment, source of information for jobs and views of graduates regarding the problems faced in finding suitable employment. A total number of 1261 responses (response rate of 36%) were taken as the sample for analysis. The following are the major findings of the study: • 78% from the sample were employed while 14.6% were unemployed • Among the graduates pursuing higher studies full-time, and those not seeking jobs and unemployed, more than 2/3rdsofthcm were female. The highest percentage (more than 95%) of graduates in the academic stream of engineering were employed. More than (24%) of B.Sc. (Bio Science) graduates were unemployed. Absorption to the private sector was highest in engineering graduates (more than 55%). In contrast, absorption to the public sector was highest in B.Sc. (Bio Science) graduates. The average monthly income of employed graduates fell between Rs. 5000/= to Rs. 10,000/=. More than half of the graduates who were employed in the private sector received a monthly income of Rs. 15,000/=. 60% of the engineering graduates earned a monthly income of more than Rs .15,000/- 80% of the B.Sc.(Special) and 75% of engineering graduates secured employment within 6 months of graduation, while less than 50% of other graduates secured employment within that period. A higher proportion of B.Sc. (Special) graduates were engaged in Research and Development activities (around 35%). Teaching was the most common form of occupation among BSc (General) graduates. Temporarily employed and unemployed graduates have quoted discrimination as the major factor for not receiving permanent employment. Newspaper, advertisements were the most prevalent source of job opportunities for graduates. • Many of the obstacles faced by graduates in finding suitable employment could be removed by making appropriate curriculum changes. In addition, an attempt was made to project the demand of S&T graduates for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. The absorption rate and the out turn/intake ratio were used as key factors/variables for the projections. The study introduces an unemployment index, an indicator that can be used to explain the trends in unemployment. Furthermore, considering the many limitations in the currently used methods of forecasting, the present study suggests two new methods. The first is the use of common absorption rates for the available graduate labour force for each year. The advantage of this method is its applicability to all the economic situations of a country , However, in situations where the economy is growing at an unpredictable rate and where graduates from a particular academic stream are fully absorbed within one year, this method cannot be used. In such a situation, where full absorption occurs, the use of growth rales of fresh graduates in the labour market to project the demand of S&T graduates is more applicable. Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 1. Introduction In view of the rapidly changing social, economic, political and technological climates, manpower requirements are also rapidly changing these giving rise to the need for constant monitoring of manpower requirements in the country. The Tracer study of graduates can be used as a useful tool to examine the current level of Science & Technology (S& T) manpower requirements in the labour market and forecast the demand for the coming years, which in turn facilitates the policy changes in relation to the effective utilization of S& T manpower. There were very few attempts during the last decade to forecast manpower requirements and related issues. Two of those studies are highlighted below. 1.1 Study on manpower requirements based on economic growth. There was an attempt to forecast manpower requirements based on the growth rate of professionals & the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These two growth rates were used under two scenarios: Baseline and High growth scenario. In the Baseline scenario, professional growth rates were calculated for different years. The annual growth rate of recent years were used for projections. The high growth scenario was based on the concept that the professional growth rates are growing at a faster rate than overall employment when the GDP is growing. In this case, professional growth rates were calculated using the average GDP growth rate of the recent past. In both methods, additional requirements of professionals were projected using the professional growth rate and existing stock of S&T professionals. This method may be used in a situation where the economy shows a steady growth rate. In a situation where the GDP growth fluctuates within a wide range, the validity of this method is doubtful. Moreover, this method needs vast amounts of data sets in relation to the different sectors in order to make an accurate forecast. A forecast made in 1995 is given in annex 1. 1 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 1.2 Tracer study of University S& T graduates -1997 This study has been conducted by the Science and Technology Personnel Development Project with the aim of collecting information to describe the first destination, employment status, and income levels of graduates. The study was confined to graduates who passed out in 1997 from S & T faculties of the Sri Lankan Universities. The names and addresses of graduates, who passed out in 1997, had been obtained from the relevant faculties of the universities. A structured questionnaire was posted to these graduates with a covering letter and a self addressed stamped envelope. A 5% random sample was selected from the non -respondents to send reminders. Major findings of the above study are given in annex 3 1.3 Current Study The present follow up study focused on graduates who passed out in 1998 and 1999. The aim of this survey was to collect career information to analyze the labour market and forecast the demand for recently passed out graduates in the field of Science & Technology, which will be useful in the policy making process. The analysis is mainly focused on gaining insights into the current employment status of graduates, their demand in different sectors, income levels and the rates of absorption into the labour market etc In addition, an attempt was made to forecast manpower requirements/demand of fresh S & T graduates in different disciplines using some of the data obtained from this study. However, this approach also has certain'limitations which are discussed later. 2. Objectives The overall objective of this study was to gain an in-depth understanding regarding the labour market of the recently passed out graduates and to forecast manpower demand in different disciplines in the field of Science & Technology. 2 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 2.1 Specific Objectives 1. Analyze current employment status, sectors of employment, and salary structure of the S & T graduates in different disciplines. 2. Analyze the pattern of the absorption rate of graduates in the field of Science & Technology into the labour market 3. Analyze the obstacles faced by graduates in the process of absorption into the labour market. 4. Forecast the demand for S& T graduates in each discipline 3. Scope of the study In the year 2000, the Manpower Information System (MIS) unit at the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted this study covering Science, Engineering and Agriculture Faculties of all the Sri Lankan Universities, excluding the Jaffna and South Eastern University. 4. Methodology The list of names and addresses of graduates who passed out from the Science, Engineering and Agriculture faculties in the years 1998 and 1999 were obtained from the relevant faculties in printed form, electronic media and copying down from university records. A pre-tested structured questionnaire (Annex 2) was posted to each and every graduate who was listed in the above list. The questionnaire was accompanied with a stamped envelope to enable the respondents to return the filled questionnaire to NSF. A program was developed in Visual Basic to facilitate data entry. It was implemented in an Access database. Data was analyzed using the statistical software package for Social Sciences (SPSS). 3 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Sta tus of Responses Figure 4 shows the number of graduates who passed out from the science, agriculture and engineering faculties of different universities Sri Lanka in the years of 1998 and 1999 actual out turn), number surveyed and the number of responses received from graduates who passed out from those particular faculties of the universities. University Grant Commission. Fig.4 : Actual Out turn of S&T graduates (1998 & 1999) number surveyed and the no of graduates who responded. The number of valid responses from graduates who passed out from each faculty is given in Table 4. 4 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 University Faculty Number No of Response Surveyed Responses Rate(%) Eastern Agriculture 19 7 37 Rajarata Agricultural Sciences 75 41 55 -do- Applied Sciences 1 101 59 58 -do- Applied Sciences II 81 16 20 Sabaragamuwa Applied Sciences 41 8 20 Open Eng. Technology 27 3 II -do- Natural Sciences 332 118 36 Colombo Science 332 83 25 Kelaniya Science 331 119 36 Moratuwa Engineering 356 197 55 Peradeniya Agriculture 330 112 34 -do- Engineering 440 106 24 -do- Science 406 112 28 Ruhuna Agriculture 117 52 44 -do- Science 310 118 38 Sri Jayavvardanapura Applied Sciences 233 47 Sri Jayavvardanapura Applied Sciences 233 110 47 Total 3531 1261 36 Table. 4: Status of responses 5. Assumptions 1. The list of graduates who passed out in 1998 and 1999 and their home addresses provided by the universities are accurate. 2. The aim was to collect information from all the graduates belonging to the group as mentioned above. Only 36% of the total has responded (1261). Therefore, the number of responses was taken as the sample assuming that the sample adequately represents the total population of S & T graduates who passed out in 1998 and 1999. 5 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 District Fig.7.1: Distribution of Respondents among Districts. Distribution of graduates by degree course 6 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 6. Limitations There was a need to conduct a non-respondent survey in order to test whether the respondent sample was biased towards unemployment. The MIS unit was not in a position to carry out a non-respondent survey due to the limitations of manpower and financial resources. In this study, attention has not been given to issues such as the employment pattern of graduates, frictional unemployment, under employment and job satisfaction of graduates. 7. Summary of the findings 7.1 Basic characteristics of responded graduates Among 1261 of the graduates who responded, 57.5% were males. The respondent graduates were distributed among all districts (Fig 9.1). Colombo district reported the highest percentage of responses (17.5%) followed by Kurunegala (9.8%), Gampaha (9.2%) , Galle (8.6%), Kandy (8.4%) and other districts (46.5 %). Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 7 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation The sample consisted of 29.7% B.Sc. General (Bio Science), 24.2% B.Sc (Engineering) graduates, 21.7% B. Sc. General (Physical Science) graduates, 16.8% B.Sc. (Agriculture) graduates and 5.6% B. Sc. (Special) graduates. 7.2 Current Employment Status In this study, the current employment status of graduates is described using five main Categories. The employed graduates are the graduates who are permanently or temporarily engaged in full time work in formal employment sectors such as government, semi-government, private and other (NGOs, Foreign funded projects) sectors. Those who all involved fulltime in pursuing postgraduate studies are considered as graduates pursuing further studies. The graduates who all engaged in their own or family business are considered self-employed. Unemployed graduates are those without work and seeking employment. Graduates without work and not seeking employment are not considered for further analysis, as they are not available for work 7.2.1 Employed graduates :The percentage employed among the graduates who responded was 78%. 70% of them were permanently employed while the others were temporarily employed. 7.2.2 Unemployed graduates :The percentage unemployed was 14.6% (only 0.5% graduates were not seeking jobs) 7.2.3 Graduates pursuing : Only 3% were engaged in full time postgraduate studies. further studies 7.2.4 Self employed graduates :The percentage of self-employed among graduates was very l o w ( l % ) . Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Not specified ' 29% Permenanlly Employed 54.8% Fig.7.2: Current employment s ta tus of graduates 7.2.5 Current employment status and gender It was revealed that 85 % of male graduates in the sample were employed while only 68.5% of females were employed (a). Only 6 3 % of employed graduates were males (b). Fig 7.2.5.1 Current Employment Status and Gender Fig.7.2.5.1: Employed graduates according to gender 8 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 JQQ - . - 90 - to • 70 • 60 1 SO • 40 • GENDER Female Mate 30 • 20 • 10 • 0 . GENDER Female Mate Mil II 1' Employment status No t l oo kin g fo r j ob s 1 Se lf em pl oy ed , Fig 7.2.5.2: Current employment s ta tus according to gender The proportion of females was higher among the graduates engaged in further studies (62.5%). The situation was the same for the unemployed (64.1%) and those who were not seeking jobs (66.7%). Moreover, the percentage of females among self-employed graduates was remarkably less (8.3%). 7.2.6 A enlevement at the final examination and current employment status A particular pattern can be observed in the employment status according to the level of achievement at the final examination. The percentage of graduates enjoying "employed" status changed according to the level of achievement at the final examination. For example, 88.1% of graduates with first classes, 83.6% of graduates with second upper passes, 83 3% of graduates with second lower passes and 74.1% of graduates with ordinary passes were employed. In contrast among the unemployed graduates, the percentage increased with the level of achievement (2.4%, 9.2%, 9.6% and 18.6%) respectively. 7.2.7 Current employment status and degree course The highest proportion of employed graduates belonged to B. Sc. (Engineering) (96.1%), followed by B.Sc. Special (89.5%), B. Sc. General (Physical Science) (76.3%), B.Sc. (Agriculture) (75.5 %) and B.Sc. General (Bio Science) (64.8%). Unemployment was highest among Bio Science graduates (24.1%), followed by Physical Science (18.6 %), Agriculture (15.1%) and B. Sc. Special (3%). Unemployment was the lowest among Engineering graduates (0.7 %). 9 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 7.3 Currently Employed Graduates The percentage of graduates in the sample who were categorized as employed was 78%. Employed graduates were divided into two main categories namely "Permanently employed" ( 70 % ) and "Temporarily employed" (30%). Career information of employed graduates can be analyzed according to degree course, gender, income level, management level, sector of employment, main functions of employment and time spent (waiting time) for getting the first employment. 7.3.1 Management Level Graduates were asked to mention the management level of their current o< cupation. According to the data, the highest proportion of graduates belonged to t ie Junior Management level (32.1%) followed by the Non Executive level (30.6%, Middle Management (18%) and Senior Management (1.9%). Fig 7.6 Not specified Fig 7.3.1.: Management level of currently employed graduates 7.3.1.1 Management Level and Income 10 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Degree Course Sector Employed (%) Degree Course Government Semi-Covt. Private Other 11 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation An attempt was made to compare the management level of graduates with their monthly income from employment. According to the data, the management level had no real relation with the income level. Among the graduates working as senior managers, the lowest income level was Rs 5000- 10,000/-. However, 2.9% of middle level managers received an income below Rs 5,000/- Moreover, 5% of the junior managers earned an income of less than Rs 5,000/-. The respective percentage of graduates who are non-executives was 36.2%. The most common income level irrespective of the management levels was Rs.5, 000/- to Rs. 10,000/= 7.3.2 Sector of employment Employment of graduates in the different sectors of the economy of the country was analyzed to identify the current trends in the graduate labour market. The highest proportion (54.6%) of graduates was absorbed into the public sector, which consisted of Government (56%) and Semi government (44%), compared with the absorption in to the Private sector (37.8%). Non Government Organizations and foreign funded projects were combined to represent other sectors and the employment of graduates in this sector was around 2.5%. 7.3.2. J Sector of employment and degree course Absorption of graduates into different sectors was analyzed in relation to the degree course followed. Engineering graduates showed the highest percentage of absorption into the private sector (56.7 %) followed by graduates in B.Sc. Special (43.5%), B.Sc. Physical Science (39.2%), B.Sc. Agriculture (23.8 %) and B.Sc. Bio Science (23%). In contrast, 69.6 % of B.Sc. (Bio Science) graduates were absorbed into the public sector and only around 40% of Engineering graduates were employed in the above sector Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 B.Sc. General (Phy) 39.2 14.4 39.2 .5 B.Sc. General (Bio) 44.9 24.7 23.0 1.2 B. Sc. Special 24.2 24.2 43.5 4.8 B. Sc. Agriculture 33.1 27.5 23.8 8.8 B. Sc. Engineering 12.3 27.6 56.7 1.0 Not specified 56.3 18.8 18.8 6.3 Total 30.9 23.7 37.8 2.5 * 5% of the sample had not specified the sector of employment Table 7.3.2.1: Graduate employment-Sector of employment by degree course 7.3.2.2 Sector of employment and income The sector of employment of graduates was analyzed with their income levels to see whether any relationship could be seen between these two factors. With regard to the graduates employed in the private sector, 10.5% are belonged to the highest income level (more than Rs.30,000). In the semi government sector, the respective percentage was 5.2. In the government sector, only 0.3% of the graduates earned more than Rs. 30,000/=. More than half of the graduates in the private sector (53.8%) earned an income of more than Rs. 15,000. In all sectors, most of the graduates received a monthly income between Rs. 5000/= and Rs. 10,000/=, Sector Percentage Government 53.9% Semi government 56.7 % Other sectors 52%. Income Group Sector of Employmcnt(%) Government Semi Private Other 12 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period I99H/I999 Government Rs. 3000 or less .. 9.5 .4 1.1 Rs. 3001- 5000 27.3 5.6 9.4 16.0 Rs. 5001-10000 53.9 56.7 .21.8 52.0 Rs. 10001-15000 1.7 13.2 8.0 Rs. 15001-20000 7.9 24.91 25.3 12.0 Rs. 20001-30001 .7 4.7 18.0 12.0 Rs. 30001 & over .3 5.2 10.5 Not specified .3 .9 .8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * 5"n of the sample has not specified the sector of employment Table 7.3.2.2: Graduate employment-Sector of employment by income group 7.3.3 Income levels Among all respondent graduates, nearly 4 0 % of them received a monthly income in th range of Rs. 5,000/= and Rs.10, 000/= while 18.2 % of graduates earned more than R» 15,000/= per month. Only 13.7% of graduates earned more than Rs. 20,000 /= per month. Not specified Rs 30001 4 over 4 7% Fig 7.3.3: Income levels of employed graduates 7.3.3.1 Income level and gender 13 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 I n c o m e G r o u p H|Rs . 30001 & over I iRs. 20001-30001 I Irs. 15001-20000 [Hrs. 10001-15000 • R s 5001-10000 • R s . 3001- 5000 Rs. 3000 or less Not specified Male Female G E N D E R Fig 7.3.3.1: Income levels of employed graduates by gender 7.3.3.2 Income level and Degree course According to the data, 13.7% of B.Sc. (Engineering) graduates earned an income of more than Rs. 30,000/=. Relevant percentages of B.Sc. (Special), B.Sc. (Physical Science), B.Sc.(Agriculture) graduates were 9.7, 2.4 and 0.6 respectively. The higher percentage of Engineering graduates (29.4 %) earned an income of Rs. 15,000/= to Rs.20,000/=. However, among the other graduates the higher proportion earned an income of Rs. 5000/= - Rs. 10,000/=. Furthermore, 60.8% of Engineering graduates earned an income of more than Rs 15,000/=. In contrast, only 8.3% of graduates in B.Sc. (Bio Science) earned more than Rs. 15, 000/=. 14 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation A considerable difference in the income levels of male and female graduates has been observed. 74.6% of females earned an income of less than Rs. 10,000/=. The respective percentage for males was only 47.6%. Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Income Group Degree Course (%) Total (%) Income Group B.Sc. General (Phy) B.Sc. General (Bio) B. Sc. Special B. Sc. Agri. B. Sc. Eng Total (%) Rs. 3000 or less 5.3 6.6 1.6 1.9 .7 3.5 Rs. 3001-5000 26.3 21.8 4.8 15.6 .3 14.3 Rs. 5001-10000 38.3 57.6 37.1 49.4 20.8 39.9 Rs. 10001-15000 1.9 .8 9.7 .6 14.7 5.7 Rs. 15001-20000 itl'iu*;',".':--̂ - ; - • 6.2 24.2 20.0 29.4 18.2 Rs. 20001-30001 8.1 5.0 17.7 8.4 Rs. 30001 &over 9.7 .6 13.7 5.3 Not specified 5.7 . 4.9 4.8 6.9 2.7 4.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * 2%of the sample had not specified the degree course Table 7.3.3.2: Graduate employment- income levels by degree course 7.3.4 Main functions of the occupation Main functions performed by graduates in their occupations were analyzed. Function Degree Course (%) Function B.Sc. General (Phy) B.Sc. General (Bio.) B. Sc. Special B.Sc. Agri B. Sc. Eng Total Administration 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.3 4.9 5.1 Direction & Management 4.0 5.3 1.4 6.6 21.3 11.4 Extension Service 0.4 2.1 2.9 15.6 3.9 5.7 Production & Product Development. 6.9 4.0 4.3 8.5 16.7 10.9 Research & Development 4.7 6.6 35.7 17.9 10.2 13.5 Software Development 5.8 1.1 11.4 . - 10.5 6.1 Teaching 29.6 21.4 20.0 16.5 4.6 23.3 Testing & Quality Control 8.5 4.8 8.6 5.7 3.6 7.6 Trade 0.3 1.3 1.4 8.5 2.3 1.9 Other 15.0 13.5 17.1 3.8 33.4 23.1 * Percentages do not add up to 100 due to multiple responses Table 7.3.4: Main functions of the occupations of graduates 15 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 7.3.5 Waiting time Waiting time is defined as the period from the date of graduation to the first paid employment. 25.4% of graduates had been able to get employed before their graduation or just after graduation. Waiting time for these graduates was recorded as 0 months. 65.5% of the graduates had found the first paid employment within the first 6 months of their graduation. The analysis in relation to the waiting time is given below 7.3.5.1 Degree Course and Waiting time Waiting time and degree course were analyzed to see the rate of absorption of graduates in different categories of the degree course. ,B. Sc. (Special) graduates showed the highest rate of absorption into the labour market. Within the first 6 months after graduation, 85% of B. Sc. (Special), 82% of Engineering, 71 % of Agriculture, 57.7% of Physical Science, 52.1% of Bioscience graduates had got absorbed into the labour market. In contrast, 33.1 % of graduates in Bioscience, 25.2% of Physical sciences, 13.7% of Agriculture and 3% of B.Sc. (Special) had failed to find a job even after 2 years of their graduation. Waiting time (Months) Degree Course (%) Total (%) Waiting time (Months) B.Sc. General (Phy) B.Sc. General (Bio) B. Sc. Special B. Sc. Agri B. Sc. Engi Total (%) 0 23.0 21.7 40.3 11.3 39.0 25.4 0-6 23.0 18.8 40.3 30.7 35.7 26.8 6-12 11.7 11.6 4.5 29.7 7.2 13.3 12-18 8.8 5.0 4.5 7.5 5.6 6.3 18-24 2.9 2.4 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.2 >24 25.2 33.1 3.0 13.7 1.0 18.8 Not Specified 5.5 7.4 6.0 4.7 9.8 7.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 *2% of the sample had not specified the degree course Table 7.3.5.1: Waiting time of graduates according to the degree course 16 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 D e g r e e C o u r s e Fig. 7.3.5.1: Waiting time of graduates according to the degree course 7.3.5.2 Waiting time and achievement at the final examination Waiting time and the level of achievement at the final examination were analyzed to see whether there was any relationship between academic performances and absorption of graduates into the labour market. 78.3 % of the graduates who had passed out with second uppers had been absorbed into the labour market within the first 6 months after graduation. Relevant percentages for graduates with first classes, second lowers and passes were 76.2%, 73.7% and 59.3% respectively. Nearly 25% of graduates with passes had failed to find a place in the labour market even after 2 years of graduation. 17 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Waiting time (Months) Achievement at the final Examination Total Waiting time (Months) First Class Second Upper Second Lower Pass Total 0 mum ̂r ^ ^ . . . 2 5 , p . - 24.9 25.4 0-6 •f. i ^ : ;^48;S ';il;-!;iji;£i32.7 40.1 12-18 9.5 4.6 6.7 6.2 6.3 18-24 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 >24 ^ i f f f S ' ^ i o . 5 ' 10.2 • 24.9 18.8 Not Specified 2.4 4.6 7.0 7.5 7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.2% of the sample had not specified the level of achievement at the final examination Table 7.3.5.2: Waiting time of graduates according to the level of achievement at the final examination 7.3.6 View of temporarily employed graduates regarding their failure in obtaining permanent employment The comments of the graduates who were able to receive temporary employment have been analyzed to see the reasons for their failure to obtain a permanent employment. Interestingly, discrimination in terms of race, caste, religion, politics and sex (37.5%) have been indicated as major reasons over the other commonly expected reasons such as low standard of English, poor performance at the tests and interviews etc. View Percentage Discrimination by race, caste, religion & politics j 2 5 . 7 ^ ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Poor performance at the degree program 15.8 ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Low Standard of English 15.1 ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Poor performance at tests and interviews 13.2/ ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Sex discrimination 11.8 ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Status of school attended during secondary education 2.6 ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Other 38.8 ^ 37.5 ^ 52.05 / Not Specified 47.95 Total * 100.00 * Percentages do not add up to 100 due to multiple responses Table 7.3.6: Major reasons for the failure to obtain permanent employment. 18 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 1.1% Not specified Fig.7.4.1: Unemployed graduates according to the degree course 7.4.2 Views regarding their failure in obtaining permanent employment The comments of the unemployed graduates have been analyzed to sec the reasons for their failure to obtain permanent employment. Interestingly, in this category also discrimination in terms of race, caste, religion, politics and sex had been voted as the major reason for the failure to obtain permanent employment. 19 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 7.4 Unemployed Graduates The percentage of unemployed graduates in the sample was 14.6%. Among unemployed graduates, the majority of them were females (64.1%), males (35.9%). 7.4.1 Unemployed graduates by Degree Course Unemployed graduates were classified according to the degree course followed. B.Sc. General (Bio science) graduates showed the highest proportion (49.5%) among unemployed graduates, followed by graduates in B.Sc. General (Physical Science)- (27.7 %), B. Sc. Agriculture (17.4%), B. Sc.Special (1.1%) and B. Sc. Engineering (1.1%) Degree Course B S C Engineering Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 View Percentage Discrimination by race, caste, religion & politics 31.3 \ \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Poor performance at tests and interviews 20.3" \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Low standard of English 17.2 \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Sex discrimination 13.5 \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Poor performance at the degree program 10.9 \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Status of school attended during secondary education 3.9 \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Other 26.6 \ \ > 44.8 ^ 69.57 Not Specified 30.43 Total 100.00 * Percentages do not add up to 100 due to multiple responses Table 7.4.2.: Views regarding their failure in obtaining permanent employment 7.5 Self Employed Graduates The percentage of self-employed among graduates was very low (1%). Self-employment activities include computer typesetting & desktop publishing, trade, production of seeds, « fruit & vegetable processing and exporting, private tuition etc. The size of the sample of self-employed graduates was inadequate to carry out further analysis. However, it is worthwhile to note that the majority of the self-employed were B.Sc. - (Bio science) graduates. Furthermore, among the self-employed graduates, females were remarkably low (only 8%). 7.6 Main Sources of Employment Information According to the data, the main source of information on job opportunities was considered t the newspapers. 30% of graduates had found information regarding their jobs from newspapers, 15% through the university, 12.3% from the Government gazette, 9.6% from personal contacts with the employer and 6.8% through other employees. 20 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Job Source Any other 4.8% Fig 7.6: Main sources of employment information 7.7 Obstacles faced by graduates in finding suitable employment Graduates were asked to indicate obstacles faced by them in the process of searching for suitable employment. According to the data, the main obstacle was the absence of work experience Table 7.7. It is interesting to note that the obstacles indicated under a, d, e, f can easily be removed through necessary curriculum changes. The necessity of relevant national policy changes is shown in order to overcome the obstacles indicated under b and c 21 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation This shows that informal mechanisms also play a considerable role in graduate employment Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Obstacle Percentage (a) Absence of required work experience 34.26 (b) Absence of opportunities in the field of specialty 25.22 (c) Absence of opportunities in the area of interest 15.38 (d) Lack of knowledge in English 12.85 (e) Lack of knowledge in Information Technology 9.91 (f) Lack of knowledge in Management 4.52 (g) Other 7.93 * 30.21% of the sample had not specified the obstacles. * Percentages do not add up to 100 due to multiple responses Table 7.7: Obstacles faced by graduates in finding suitable employment. 7.8 Projections of demand for S & T graduates in 2002,2003 and 2004 An attempt was made to forecast S & T manpower requirements/demand using the absorption rate of the graduates and outturn/intake ratio as key variables. Absorption rate is defined as the percentage of graduates absorbed into the labour market within a particular period of time. The ratio between the out turn of graduates and the corresponding intake for each academic year is considered as the out turn/intake ratio. 7.8.1 Methodology Employed graduates were classified according to the academic stream: B.Sc. (Physical & Biological Science), B.Sc. Engineering and B.Sc. Agriculture. The total responses received from each academic stream were treated as the population of respective streams. Ten random samples of size 30 were taken (with replacement) from the defined population. The cumulative absorption rate was plotted against the waiting time. Different time periods were „ observed by different samples to absorb fully (100% absorption) into the labour market. - Absorption rates were calculated for each academic stream for the 1 s t year (P,), 2 n d year (P2) and estimated upto the time taken for 100% absorption (Pn) after graduation. 22 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation i Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 23 Manpower information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation The calculated and estimated absorption rates of each sample for the different years were used to estimate absorption rates of population and confidence interval for the population absorption rates. The intake of students and out turn of graduates from the relevant faculties of the universities for the corresponding years were taken form the UGC reports. The out turn/intake ratio was calculated for each academic year and academic stream. This ratio was plotted against the time (years). An extraordinary pattern was observed in the intake/out turn ratio for different disciplines at different time periods. It was suspected that some external factors such as political, economical and institutional environments had contributed to this behavior of the intake/out turn ratio. An attempt was not made to measure/estimate these effects individually (separately) because of the limitation of data for these categories. But this effects were considered together as seasonal (for years)/ cyclic components and estimated. Among several models, the moving average model was selected as it was well fitted with data. Using this model, ratios were projected for the next few years. Deciding on the projection periods depended on the data availability of intake. The amount of intake and projected ratio were used to estimate the out turn (supply) of graduates from different academic streams for each academic year. Existing (Aj, Bj, C|), estimated out turn (D|, Ei, F|) and estimated absorption rates (P| ... P4) for different years were used to estimate the demand/requirements of graduates in different disciplines for different years. Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Year Out turn Amount absorbed Year Out turn 1998/1999 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 1998/1999 Ai A,*P, A 2*P 2 V P 3 A4*P4 1999/2000 B| B,*P, B 2 *P 2 . B 3*P 3 B 4*P 4 2000/2001 Ci C,*P, • C 2*P 2 C 3*P 3 C 4*P 4 2001/2002 Di D,*P, D 2*P 2 D3*P3 2002/2003 Ei E,*P, E2*P2 2003/2004 Fi F,*P, The demand in 2001/2002 can be estimated by adding the amount absorbed from the different batches in the same year. This technique was used for different disciplines. 7.8.2.Analysis 7.8.2. J Estimated absorption rates. Population absorption rates and 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using the sample absorption rates. The following tables show the sample absorption rates, population absorption rates and confidence interval for the absorption rates. Sample No. Pi P 2 P3 P 4 Sample No. Agr Eng Agr Eng Agr Eng Agr Eng 1 63.6 87.9 16.8 12.1 12.6 0 0 6.9 2 66.7 79 19.7 11.7 13.6 7.1 2.1 0.0 3 73.1 75.9 20.5 10.3 6.4 11.0 2.7 0.0 4 68.8 90.3 17.1 9.7 13.4 0 0 0.7 5 69.6 80.0 14.5 15 13.5 5 0 2.5 6 77.4 90.6 17.2 9.4 5.4 0 0 0.0 7 86.2 83.6 13.8 8.7 0.0 6.1 1.5 0.0 8 67.9 81.6 18.9 9.7 13.1 8.7 0 0.0 9 78.3 82.9 17.1 2.8 4.6 14.3 0 0.0 10 60.9 86.7 19.0 13.3 11.9 0 0 8.1 24 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Estimated population absorption rates and confidence intervals were as follows: Discipline Absorption Rate Mean Confidence interval Discipline Absorption Rate Mean Upper limit Lower limit Eng Pi 83.85 85.78 81.91 Eng Pa 10.27 11.55 8.99 Eng P 3 5.23 7.264 3.199 Eng P 4 0.64 1.07 0.22 Agr Pi 71.25 74.23 68.26 Agr P2 17.47 18.32 16.63 Agr P3 9.454 11.38 7.52 Agr P 4 1.81 3.04 0.59 7.8.2.2 Estimated Out turn/intake ratio Out turn / intake ratios for the next few years were projected with the use of the time series model as explained in the methodology section. Academic year Ratio Academic year Agr Eng 1988 0.693277 0.760456 1989 0.636364 0.790941 1990 0.643791 0.685328 1991 0.591195 0.720532 1992 0.616246 0.574436 1993 0.39666 0.909344 1994 0.570707 0.621438 1995 0.584615 0.605594 1997 0.6 0.661333 1998 0.758043" 0.817819 1999 0.718072 0.834656 2000 0.591935* 0.797671 2001 0.724125* 0.671369* 2002 0.660432* 0.928099* 2003 0.606019* 0.723024* 2004 0.741219* 0.742655* * Projected values ** Estimated value 7.8.2.3 Projected Out turn. Out turn the for years 2002, 2003 and 2004 was projected using the estimated ratios and available data on intake 25 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Academic Stream Year Projected Out turn Agr 2002 443 Agr 2003 393 Agr 2004 535 Eng 2002 685 Eng 2003 633 Eng 2004 688 7.8.2.4. Estimate of Annual Demand. Annual demand for the next few years was projected using the estimated absorption rates and projected out turn Academic Stream Year Projected out turn Proi ected Demand Lower limit Mean Upper limit Agr 2002 443 417 440 474 Agr 2003 393 382 412 441 Agr 2004 535 467 501 535 Eng 2002 685 623 655 676 Eng 2003 633 596 629 642 Eng 2004 688 643 681 714 7.8.3 Limitations. 7.8.3.1 Lack of availability of key information Estimating the out turn and demand Data on out turn of graduates corresponding to the particular intake was not available in tabulated form. Therefore, the data was recorded by counting the number of years for a particular degree course from the year of intake and getting the out turn of the corresponding year. Estimate of Absorption rates Absorption rates (Pi, P2, P3 & P 4 ) were calculated and estimated using data gathered from the Tracer study survey. The survey was done only for 2 years. For each academic year the same absorption rates ( P 1 . . . P 4 ) were used, owing to limitation in data availability though in reality these rates are changing with the economic, social, political and other conditions. 26 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 27 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Data on B.Sc. (Physical & Bio Science) academic stream Absorption rates for B.Sc. Physical and Bio Science graduates were also calculated separately. It was observed that the behavior of absorption rates was not common for both groups. (Pi for Physical Science was higher than Pi for Bio Science). But the separate data on intake and out turn of both groups were not available in the way needed for this analysis. Therefore, the analysis of these two groups couldn't be carried out. 7.8.3.2 Lack of consistency of the data Value for total out turn of graduates from the universities for a particular year was different in reports published by the UGC for different years. 7.8.3.3 Institutionalformalities Graduates in particular academic streams were from different faculties of different universities. The time (month of the year) of passing out /conducting of final exams was different in different faculties of different universities for a particular academic year. Therefore, even graduates from one academic stream have different entering times to the labour market, which will sender this analysis more complicated. Reputation of the University / faculty, facilities available and the quality of graduates also affect the rate of absorption, though these were not considered in this analysis. Analysis according to the sub disciplines/specialized areas within each academic stream will be done outside of this report 7.8.4 Assumptions Graduates from particular academic streams and belonging to a particular academic year are absorbed fully (100% absorption) within the first four years of their graduation. Absorption rates are the same for each academic year for the graduates in particular academic streams (lime independent). Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 7.8.5 Findings 84% of the fresh engineering graduates were absorbed into the labor market within the first year of graduation and the respective rate for the following year was 10%. In the case of fresh agriculture graduates, 71% were absorbed in the first year and in the following year it was 17%. The study confirms that engineering graduates have a higher demand compared with the agriculture graduates. Estimated out turn/intake ratio will be higher in year 2002 for the engineering academic stream and lower in 2003. The academic stream of agriculture will have a lower ratio in 2003 and a higher ratio in 2004. Fluctuation of this ratio is observed in both academic steams, due is mainly to external factors. Projected out turn of graduates for engineering for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 are 685,633 and 688. The respective values for agriculture graduates are 443,393 and 535. Considering the demand of fresh engineering graduates, the projected values (average) for 2002,2003 and 2004 are 655,629 and 681. In the case of fresh agriculture graduates, the respective values are 440,412 and 501. At any point of time (year), the index of unemployment (current unemployment as a percentage of previous year unemployment) of graduates belonging to a particular academic stream can be estimated. This index would be more meaningful than the size of unemployment. 8. Discussion 8.1 Projections of demand With regard to the projections of demand of graduates (section.7.8 of this report) the absorption rates (P|, P2, P3, P4) were assumed to be constant for the next few years. These rates may vary from year to year due to socio-economic and some other related factors. In order to get more reliable and appropriate estimates for absorption rates for each year of out 28 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation turn, a similar Tracer study can be continued for several years. Consequently, P|, P2, P3, P4 can be recorded for each year of out turn. This recorded data can be used to project different absorption rates for different years of out turn. Furthermore, Pi, P2, P3, P4 can be tabulated with corresponding GDP values of the country to investigate whether there is a relationship between them. In the case of unemployment of graduates in a particular academic stream, we propose to use the index of unemployment rather than the size of unemployment. The Index of unemployment is current year unemployment as a percentage of previous year unemployment. This index may have values less or greater than 100 but it will be definitely greater than or equal to zero. This can be used as one of the indicators with the fixed base year. Moreover, plotting the index of unemployment vs. time (years) can be used to observe a pattern, which may lead to further investigation on external factors, which would have affected the unemployment index. For the estimation of demand we considered only fresh graduates and the key factor was the absorption rate to estimate/project the demand. Further, 100 % absorption within the defined time interval (4 years) was considered, which may vary for different academic streams. Therefore, in the future, wc can consider only P, which means the absorption rate for each year. It can be calculated by adding how much was absorbed from the total out turn and rest of the absorbed from the previous years. This P can also be plotted with corresponding GDP to observe a relationship between these variables, which can be used to suggest/predict more reliable values for P. In this study, the demand of graduates in each academic stream was projected with the use of absorption rates. In a case where the absorption rate of the first year (Pi) is 100%, there is a possibility of underestimating the demand. Therefore, this method is not suitable when Pi is 100%. In reality, there are a few engineering disciplines where the absorption rate is almost 100% at the time of graduation. If the index of unemployment is zero, then too this method cannot be used to project demand, as it will lead to an underestimation of the demand. In this kind of situation, as a remedy, the following method can be used to estimate the demand. 29 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Growth rate of fresh graduates who are employed can be calculated using the no. of fresh employees in each year. The rate of growth of employed fresh graduates and GDP can be tabulated to investigate the relationship between them. If a relationship exists, then we can suggest/ predict growth rates of employment of fresh graduates against the GDP. Once the growth rate of employment of fresh graduates for a particular year is projected, the demand for fresh graduates can also be projected for the corresponding year. This projected demand can be compared with the projected out turn of the corresponding year. 8.2 Data collection In this study, the method of data collection needed more manpower, time and other relevant resources compared to the resources available at MIS. The questionnaires were sent to all S&T graduates in the target group. But the response rate was 36 %. Therefore, we are planning to conduct a future Tracer study using suitable sampling techniques in the next years. The values for the demand of fresh graduates in the near future were projected considering the absorption rate as a constant. In order to increase the reliability and precision of these projections, it is required to perform, backward validation for a reliable set of data for a few years. Therefore, this study should be continued, in order to obtain more precise projections. Use of census data will provide more accurate projected values than sampling. It also eliminates the time spent for sampling, sampling errors, human errors etc. However, the present circumstances and limited resources do not allow census of graduates every year. We suggest the following mechanism to collect reliable and accurate data from the graduates. This mechanism may need an approach, which is beneficial to both graduates and managers. Once the system is established, reliable data can be made available not only for this study but also for many other purposes. Graduates can be given a relevant form to fill and submitt to the university just after their final examination. Having released the final results, universities can provide a reference number for each graduate who passed the final examination. Collected forms can be sent to 30 Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 31 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation a central authority by the universities. Once a graduate is recruited, he/she should submit this reference number to the employer. The employer is expected to send it to the central authority with the relevant information of employment of the candidate. This mechanism can be implemented as a web based or document based exercise depending on the facilities available in the universities, institutions and industries. 9. Annex - 1 T A B L E 9.1 REQUIREMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNICAL PROFESSIONALS, 1994-2000 BASE LINE SCENARIO TOTAL REQUIREMENT OF PROFESSIONALS 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 PHYSICISTS & CHEMISTS 10601 10790 10981 11179 11380 11587 11797 MATHEMATICIANS & STATISTICIANS 4743 4829 4918 5009 5102 5197 5294 BIO-SCIENTISTS 7811 7955 8101 8252 8406 8563 8725 COMPUTING PROFESSIONALS 1618 1683 1750 1820 1893 1969 2045 CIVIL ENGINEERS 4659 4845 5039 5241 5450 5668 5895 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS 1325 1378 1434 1490 1550 1612 1676 ELECTRONICS & TELECOM. ENGINEERS 1325 1378 1434 1491 1551 1612 1671 MECHANICAL ENGINEERS 864 899 935 973 1012 1052 1094 TABLE 9.2 ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT AFTER 1994 : BASE-LINE SCENARIO ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT OF PROFESSIONALS 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 A B T A B T A B T A B T A B T A B T PHYSICISTS & CHEMISTS 189 212 401 380 216 596 578 220 798 779 224 1003 986 228 1214 1195 .232 1428 MATHEMATICIANS & STATISTICIANS 86 95 181 175 97 272 266 98 364 359 100 459 454 102 556 551 104 655 BIO-SCIENTISTS 144 156 300 290 159 449 441 162 603 595 165 760 752 168 920 914 171 1085 COMPUTING PROFESSIONALS 65 32 97 « 34 166 202 35 237 275 36 311 351 38 389 429 39 468 CIVIL ENGINEERS 186 93 279 380 97 477 582 101 683 791 105 896 1009 n o 1119 1236 113 1349 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS 53 27 80 109 28 137 165 29 194 225 30 255 287 31 318 351 32 . 383 ELECTRONICS & TELECOM. ENGINEERS » 27 80 109 28 137 29 194 225 30 255 287 31 318 351 32 383 MECHANICAL ENGINEERS 35 17 52 71 18 89 109 19 , 128 148 19 167 188 20 208 hi 21 251 A: Additional requirement after 1994 B: Additional requirement due to attrition, at the rate of 2% T: Total TABLE 9.3 REQUIREMENT OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PROFESSIONALS, 1994-2000 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO TOTAL REQUIREMENT OF PROFESSIONALS 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 PHYSICISTS & CHEMISTS 10601 10856 11120 11390 11670 11958 12255 MATHEMATICIANS & STATISTICIANS 4743 486 4981 5107 5235 5368 5506 BIO - SCIENTISTS 7811 8006 8207 8413 8626 8848 9075 COMPUTING PROFESSIONALS 1618 1705 1798 1895 1997 2105 2218 CIVIL ENGINEERS 4659 4911 5176 5455 5750 6060 6388 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS 1325 1396 1472 1552 1635 1724 1817 ELECTRONICS & TELECOM. ENGINEERS 1325 1397 1472 1552 1635 1723 1817 MECHANICAL ENGINEERS 864 912 961 1013 1067 1125 1186 TABLE 9.4 ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT AFTER 1994 : HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT OF PROFESSIONALS 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 A B T A B T A B T A B T A B T A B T PHYSICISTS & CHEMISTS 255 212 467 519 217 736 789 222 1011 1069 228 1297 1357 233 1590 1654 239 1893 MATHEMATICIANS & STATISTICIANS 117 95 212 238 97 335 364 100 464 492 102 594 625 105 798 763 107 870 BIO-SCIENTISTS 195 156 354 396 160 550 602 164 766 815 168 983 1037 173 1210 1264 177 1441 COMPUTING PROFESSIONALS 87 32 119 180 34 214 277 36 313 379 38 417 487 40 527 600 42 642 CIVIL ENGINEERS 252 93 345 517 98 610 796 104 900 1091 109 1200 1401 115 1516 1729 121 1850 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS 72 26 98 147 28 175 228 30 258 311 31 342 399 3 2 431 492 35 527 ELECTRONICS & TELECOM. ENGINEERS 72 26 98 147 28 175 228 30 258 311 31 342 399 32 431 192 35 527 MECHANICAL ENGINEERS 48 17 65 97 18 115 149 19 168 203 20 223 261 • ir 322 23 . 345 A: Additional requirement after 1994 B: Additional requirement due to attrition, at the rate of 2% T: Total 7 Annexe Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates 1998/1999 in Sri Lanka (Please circle the relevant number to indicate your responses where possible answers are given) 1. Name : 2. Present Address : .Tel:- 3. Gender l .Male 2. Female 4. District from which you entered the University 5. When did you enter the University ?: Month Year 6. University from which you graduated : 7. Facul ty : 8. Department (if relevant): 9. Degree Course followed : 9.1. B.Sc. General 9.2 B. Sc. Special 1. Physical 2. Biological 1. Physical 2. Biological Main Subject 8.3 B.Sc. Agriculture (Specialized in ) 8.4 B.Sc. Engineering (Specialized in ) 10. Results declared in: Month Year, 11. Achievement at the final examination: 1. First Class 2. Second Upper 3. Second Lower 4. Pass 12. Have you undergone any training after completing your degree ? 1. Yes 2. No if yes , please indicate the followings : Duration (months) 12.1. Apprenticeship training 12.2. Company training 12.3. Graduate training program Other (Specify) 12.4 13. Other Qualifications obtained after graduation : Course title Institution Year Year commenced completed For office use only • • • 34 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Annex - 2 Tracer Study of University Graduates- Questionnaire S . No : Year: Annex-z Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates 1998/1999 in Sri Lanka 15. Which of the following situations will best describe your position as at 01/11/2000: 1. Engaged in employment 2. Engaged in temporary/ short term job 3. Engaged in further education or training 4. Unemployed and looking for a paid job 5. Unemployed but not looking for a job 6. Self employed in own or family enterprise 16. If you are presently employed, state 1. Designation : 2. Date joined : 3. Name of the Organization: Tel:- 4. Management level of your position 1,. Senior Management 2. Middle Management 3. Junior Management 4. Non Executive Grade 5. To which of the following category does your employer belong 1. Government 2. Semi Government 3. Private 4. Any other (specify) 6. Main function of your occupation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Research and Development Teaching - Direction and Management Trade Extension Service Administration Production & Product Development Software Development Testing and Quality Control Any other(Specify) 7. To which of the following income groups does your average monthly income belongs 1. Rs. 3000 or less 2. Rs. 3001 -5000 . 3. Rs. 5001 - 10000 4. Rs. 10001-15000 5. Rs. 15001 -20000 6. Rs. 20001-30000 7. Rs. 30001 & over • • • • 35 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 14. If you were employed whilst following the degree course, state 14.1 Occupation: 14.2 Period of employment: 14.3 Place of employment : r Anncx-z Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates 1998/1999 in Sri Lanka j . Date joined : 2. Designation : 3. Name of the Organization 4. Nature of the job 5. Type of the job 1. Permanent 2. Temporary 1. Full time 2. Part time 6. Management level of your position 1. Senior Management 2. Middle Management 3. Jun ior Management 4. Non Executive Grade 7. To which of the following categories did your employer belong 1. Government 2. Semi Government 3. Private 4. Any other (specify) 8. Main function of your occupation 1. Research and Development 2. Teaching 3. Direction and Management 4. Trade 5. Extension Service 6. Administration 7. Production & Product Development 8. Software Development 9. Testing and Quality Control 10. Any other(Specify) 9. Average monthly salary : Rs. 18. How did you get to know of your present job? 1. Newspaper advertisement 2. Govt. Gazette 3. Personal contacts with employers 4. Through other employees 5. Through the University 6. Any other (Specify) GO T O 20 36 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation 17. Details of first paid employment after graduation (complete if the first paid employment is different from the current employment) Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates 1998/1999 in Sri Lanka 19. If you are self-employed, provide the following information 1. Type or nature of self employment 2. Initial capital investment 1. Less than Rs. 10,000 2. Rs. 10,000-50,000 3. Rs. 50,000-1,000,000 4. More than Rs 1,000,000 3. Major source of capital 1. Family 2. Personal income from previous job 3. Private assets 4 Loans 5. Any other (specify) 4. Average Monthly Income 1. Rs. 3000 or less 2. Rs. 3001 -5000 3. Rs. 5001 - 10000 4. Rs. 10001-15000 5. Rs. 15001 -20000 6. Rs. 20001-25000 7. Rs. 25001-30000 8. Rs. 30001 & over 20. If you are unemployed or engaged in a short term job, why in your view have you failed to obtain permanent employment. 1. Poor performance at the degree program 2. Poor performance at tests and interviews 3. Low standard of Engl ish 4. Sex discrimination 5. Status of school attended during secondary education 6. Discrimination in terms of race, caste, religion and politics. 7. Other (Please specify) 21 . Wha t obstacles did you face in finding a suitable employment for you? 1. Lack of knowledge of Engl ish 2. Lack of Knowledge of Information Technology 3. Lack of knowledge of Management 4. Absence of required work experience 5. Absence of employment opportunities in the field of my specialty 6. Absence of employment opportunities in the area of my interest 7. Any other (Please specify) 37 Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation • • • • A n n e x e Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates 1998/1999 in Sri Lanka 22. Please give your comments/ suggestions regarding this survey Signature Date Thank you very much for sparing your time to complete this questionnaire 38 J Manpower Information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Summary Report on Tracer Study of University Graduates in Sri Lanka for the period 1998/1999 Report of a Tracer Study of University S & T Graduates Key I n d i c a t o r s The finding o f the Tracer Study can be summarized in terms of a list of key indicators as presented in the Table herewith. T a b l e : T r a c e r S t u d y of Univers i ty S & T G r a d u a t e s - Key I n d i c a t o r s I n d i c a t o r Bo th G e n d e r s M a l e F e m a l e 1. Overall employment rate 7 1 . 9 % 7 2 . 4 % 7 0 . 9 % 2. Overall employment rate 5 .7% 4 . 7 % 7 . 5 % 3. Degree - wise lowest unemployment rate 1.6% for B.Sc. Engineering 4 .Degree - wise highest unemployment rate 11 .8% for B.Sc. General Degree (Physical) 5. Proport ion engaged in regular wage employment 9 8 . 1 % 6. Proport ion engaged in government & semi government sectors 1.9% 7. Proport ion engaged in government & semi government sectors 5 9 . 6 % 8. Proport ion engaged in private sector 3 8 . 3 % 9. Degree - wise highest proport ion engaged in private sector 5 6 . 0 % among B.Sc. Engineering 10. Degree - wise lowest proport ion engaged in private sector 13 .8% among B.Sc. Agriculture 11. Average monthly income o f graduates with regular income Rs. 9,862 Rs. 10,944 Rs. 7,683 12, Degree - wise highest monthly income of graduates Rs. 13,379 for B.Sc. Emgoneer ing 13. Degree - wise lowest monthly income of graduates Rs. 6161 for B.Sc. General Degree (Bioscience) 14. Average monthly income of graduates in self - employment Rs. 7,150 15. Average wai t ing t ime for employment 6.4 months 5.8 months 7.9 months 16 /Degree - wise shortest wait ing time for employment 4.4 months for B.Sc. Engineering 17. Degree - wise longest wait ing t ime for employment 9.7 months for B.Sc. Agriculture Science & T e c h n o l o g y P e r s o n n e l D e v e l o p m e n t P ro j ec t iv Manpower information System (MIS) Unit, National Science Foundation Annex - 3 Acknowledgements We would like to express our grateful thanks to the ADB Science & Technology Personnel Development Project for providing the financial assistance to conduct this study successfully. We thank Mr. M. Watson, Director of National Science Foundation. We would like to extend our sincere thanks to Mr. R. M. W. Amaradasa (Director-Scientific Affairs) for his valuable guidance throughout this task. Our special thanks go out to all the deans, registrars, assistant registrars and the supportive staff of the relevant faculties of the universities for their cooperation in obtaining the addresses of graduates. We also extend our thanks to the MIS staff at the National Science Foundation; Mr. A.P. Hettiarachchi (Programmer) for creating interfaces to enter the data into the computer, Ms. J.A.C.H Samarasinghe, Ms. D. Jayakody & Mr. S. Nandasiri (Technical Assistants) for feeding the data into the computer and for assisting in other related work.