conomic Growth Introduct ion lis article primarily intends to p r o v i d e an e l emen ta ry JL knowledge and understanding of some of the basic theoretical aspects of economic growth for the students offering Economics as a subject for GCE Advanced Level and the university undergraduates. The fo l lowing a s p e c t s of e c o n o m i c growth are covered in this article: (a) definition of economic growth, • h) measuring of economic growth, K ) benefits of economic growth, (d) causes of economic growth, (e) pol ic ies o f p romot ing economic growth, and (f) costs of economic growth. Defining Economic Growth Economic growth is an increase in the production capacity of goods and services of an economy. The more food, clothing, housing, cars and medical services a country can p r o d u c e , the bet ter off tha t country's citizens will be. Economic growth will increase the availability of these types of products over time, resulting in higher standard of living. From a theoretical point of view, economic growth can be defined as an expansion of the p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y or the potential output of an economy. There are two ways of presenting the concept of economic growth. The first is in t e rms of product ion possibili ty frontier as shown in Figure 1 where economic growth is characterised as an outward shift of the p r o d u c t i o n poss ib i l i ty frontier from PPF, to PPF 2 . In other words, economic growth enables a country to produce more goodsland services in any given period as a resul t of an expans ion of i ts production capacity. The second way of presenting the concept o f e c o n o m i c growth in Figure 1 Economic Growth- Shift in production possibility frontier terms of aggregate supply as shown in F igure 2 . E c o n o m i c g rowth involves a rightward shift in the e c o n o m y ' s long- run agg rega t e supply curve. This corresponds to an increase in the economy's level of potential output. An increase in the economy's resource endowment and p roduc t i v i t y wi l l e n a b l e p roduc t ion of more goods and services at any given price, so that the aggregate supply curve will shift outwards from A S t to A S 2 . This en ta i l s an inc rease in full employment output (or potential output) from Yl to Y 2 . Prof. Danny Atapattu Senior Professor in Economics, University ofRuhuna increase in real output of a country. Thus, economists use two methods to measure economic growth; (i) the increase in real GNP (Gross Na t iona l P r o d u c t ) or N N P (Net National Product) which occurs over a period of time and (ii( the increase in real GNP or NNP per capita which occurs over time. Both measures are useful. For example, if we a re c o n c e r n e d wi th the question of military potential or poli t ical pre-eminence , the first measure is more relevant. But per capita output growth is clearly superior for comparisons of living s t a n d a r d s a m o n g na t ions or regions. Economic growth by either measurement is usually calculated in terms of annual percentage rates of growth. For example, if real GNP was Rs. 200 billion last year and is Rs. 210 billion this year, we can calculate the rate of growth by subtracting last year 's real G N P from this year's real GNP, d iv id ing the difference by last year ' s real GNP and multiplying by 100, i.e., ((210 - 2 0 0 ) / 2 0 0 ) x l 0 0 , or 5 percent. Figure 2 Economic Growth: A Shift in Aggregate Supply M e a s u r e m e n t Growth of E c o n o m i c Let us now discuss the best way of measuring growth. In a statistical sense , e c o n o m i c g r o w t h is an If economists try to measure economic growth using the rate of change of real GNP or per capita real GNP as an i n d i c a t o r , they are not necessarily measuring what they want to. GNP growth measures the actual rate of change of output rather than the g rowth of the potential ou tpu t capacity of the economy. In Figure 3, a movement from point A to point B represents a move to the frontier. This is an increase in actual output Economic Review: June/July 2011 36 Consumer Goods PPF„ 0 Capita] Goods Figure 3 Different forms of Economic Growth resulting from using up surplus capacity in the economy, but it is not e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in the theoretical sense, as moving from point A to point B does not entail an increase in productive capacity. In contrast , the shift ing of the frontier itself, enabling the move from point B to po in t C, does r ep re sen t e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . However, when economists observe a rate of change in real GNP, they cannot easily distinguish between the two types of effects, especially when the economy is subject to a bus iness cycle . It is therefore , better to measure economic growth in terms of growth of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Benefits of Economic Growth Economic growth means increase in rea l output . It p r o v i d e s the following benefits: i. Increasing incomes: The growth o f total ou tpu t r e l a t i v e to popu la t ion m e a n s i n c r e a s i n g standard of living. An expansion of real output enables consumers to enjoy more goods and services. ii. Lowering unemployment: With higher output, firms tend to employ more workers, creating more employment opportunities. iii. Reducing government borrowing: E c o n o m i c g r o w t h creates higher tax revenues and hence the need b o r r o w i n g to finance government expenditure will reduce. iv. Reduction of poverty: A g r o w i n g economy can undertake new p r o g r a m m e s to alleviate poverty. v. Improving public services: With increased tax r e v e n u e s , the g o v e r n m e n t can spend more on the provision of public goods and merit g o o d s such as i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t , hea l th care , education, etc. vi. Protection of environment: A growing economy can allocate more funds for c l ean ing up of environment without impairing the exis t ing levels of consumpt ion , i n v e s t m e n t and pub l ic g o o d s production. vii. Lessening the burden of scarcity: A g r o w i n g e c o n o m y , unlike a static one, can consume more wh i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y increasing its capacity to produce more in the future. Causes of Economic Growth Theoretically, the determinants of economic growth are the factors that can shift the P r o d u c t i o n Possibility Frontier (PPF) or the Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) curve to the right. These factors include; (a) quantity and quality of natural resources (b) quantity and qual i ty of human resources (c) s tock of p h y s i c a l cap i t a l (d) e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l ab i l i ty (e) technological knowledge (f) property r ights s t ruc ture (g) e c o n o m i c freedom. These items may be called supply factors in economic growth. i. Natural resources: Na tu ra l r e sou rce s are those inpu t s of production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and m i n e r a l d e p o s i t s . Na tura l r e sou rce s take two fa rms: renewable and non-renewable. ii. Human capital: Human capital is the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training and experience. ill. Physical capital: The stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services is called physical capital. iv. Entrepreneurial ability: The human resource that organise land, l abou r and cap i t a l is ca l led entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs come up with new ideas about what and how to produce, make business decisions, and bear the risks that arise from these decisions. v. Social capital: Social capital refers to those s tocks of social trust, norms and networks that peop le can draw upon to solve common problems. Ne tworks of c iv i c e n g a g e m e n t , such as neighbourhood associations, sport c lubs and c o o p e r a t i v e s are an essential form of social capital, and the denser these ne tworks , the more l ikely that m e m b e r s of a c o m m u n i t y wi l l c o o p e r a t e for mutual benefit. Social capital is p r o d u c t i v e , s ince two fa rmers exchanging tools can get more work done with less physical capital; rotat ing credit associa t ions can generate pools of financial capital for i n c r e a s e d e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l activity; and job searches can be more efficient if in format ion is embedded in social networks. vi. Technological knowledge: Techno log ica l knowledge is the understanding of the best ways of p r o d u c i n g goods and se rv ices . Technological knowledge may take many forms. Some technology is c o m m o n k n o w l e d g e - af ter it b e c o m e s used by o n e pe r son , e v e r y o n e b e c o m e s aware of it. Other technology is proprietary - it is known only by the company that discovers it. Still other technology is propr ie tary for a shor t t ime. When a pharmaceutical company discovers a new drug, the patent system gives that company a 37 Economic Review: June/July 2011 ^mporary right to be its exclusive inanufacturer. When the patent expires, however, other companies •ire allowed to make the drug. All Vhese forms of t e c h n o l o g i c a l knowledge are important for the economy's production of goods and services. v. Property r ights s tructure: Property rights refer to the laws, rules, and regulations that define rights for the use and transfer of resources. Consider two property right structures. In one structure, people are allowed to keep the full monetary rewards of their labour, in the other, people are allowed to keep only half. Many economists would predict that the first property rights structure would stimulate more economic activity than the second. vii. Economic freedom: Some economists believe that economic freedom leads to economic growth. Countries in which people enjoy a higher degree of economic freedom develop and grow more quickly than countries in which people have lesser e c o n o m i c f r eedom. The Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal have joined together to produce an "index of economic freedom." The index is based on 50 independent variables divided into 10 broad categories of economic freedom, such as t rade policy, monetary policy, property rights structure, regulation, fiscal burden of government, and so on. The data show that economic freedom and real GNP per capita are correlated. The above-mentioned factors that can shift the production possibility frontier to the right may be termed the supply factors in economic growth. They are phys ica l and institutional e lements that can enhance p r o d u c t i o n and productivity. But the ability to grow and the actual realisation of growth may be quite di f ferent th ings . Spec i f ica l ly , two add i t i ona l cons ide ra t i ons con t r i bu t e to growth. First, there is a demand 38 factor in growth. To realise its g rowing product ive potential , a country must provide for the full employment of its expanding supply of r e s o u r c e s . Th i s r equ i re s a growing level of aggregate demand. Second, there is an a l locat ive factor in growth. To achieve its product ive potential , a country must provide not only for the full employment of its resources, but also for full production from them. The ability to expand production is not a sufficient condition for the expans ion of total output . T h e actual employment of expanded r e source suppl ies and the al location of those resources in such a way as to get the maximum amount of useful goods produced are also required. Policies of Promoting Economic Growth Promoting economic growth means shifting rightward the production possibility frontier or the long-run aggregate supply curve. Therefore, the policies of promoting economic growth should aim at enhancing r e sou rce e n d o w m e n t and productivity. Such policies include; (a) p r o m o t i n g sav ings and investment, (b) encouraging foreign i n v e s t m e n t , (c) i n v e s t m e n t in h u m a n cap i ta l , (d) p r o t e c t i n g proper ty r ights and p romot ing political stability, (e) l iberalising t rade , (f) l o w e r i n g taxes and r e d u c i n g regu la t ion , and (g) p r o m o t i n g resea rch and development. i. P r o m o t i n g s a v i n g s a n d investment: Because capital is a produced factor of production, a country can change the amount of capital it has. Thus, one way of raising future productivity is by investing more current resources in the production of capital. To raise the level of capital stock of the economy, it requires that the coun t ry sacr i f ice the p r e s e n t consumption of goods and services. Encouraging saving and investment through m o n e t a r y and fiscal po l i c i e s is one way that a government can encourage growth. ii. E n c o u r a g i n g fore ign investment: Saving by domestic residents is not the only way for a country to invest in new capital. The other way is investment by foreigners. Investment from abroad take severa l fo rms . A capi ta l i nves tmen t that is owned and operated by a foreign entity is called fore ign d i rec t i n v e s t m e n t . An investment that is financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents is called foreign portfolio investment. In both cases, foreign inves tors cont r ibute to increase the domes t i c stock of capital. i i i . I n v e s t m e n t in h u m a n capital: Education - investment in human- cap i t a l is at leas t as impor t an t as i n v e s t m e n t in physical capital for a country's long- run economic success. One way in which g o v e r n m e n t po l i cy can enhance the standard of living is by provid ing good schools and quality education and encouraging the population to take advantage of them. iv. Protecting property rights and p r o m o t i n g po l i t i ca l stability: Property rights refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own . For th is r ea son , j ud i c i a l system serves an important role in a market e c o n o m y . It enforces property rights, ensuring buyers and se l lers l ive up to the i r contracts. In many countries, the system of justice does not work well. Contracts are hard to enforce, and fraud often goes unpunished. To do business in some countries, firms are expected to bribe powerful government officials and ministers. Thus, economic prosperity depends, in part, on political prosperity. A country with an efficient judiciary sys t em, hones t g o v e r n m e n t officials and a stable constitution will enjoy a higher economic Economic Review: June/July 2011 standard of living than a country with a poor j u d i c i a r y sys tem, corrupt of f ic ia l s and uns tab le political system. v. L i b e r a l i s i n g t rade: Mos t e c o n o m i s t s today be l i eve that countries are better off pursuing ou tward -o r i en t ed po l i c i es that integrate these countries into the world economy. Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology. When a country exports tea and imports steel, the country benefits in the same way as if it had invented a technology for turning tea into steel. A country that el iminates trade restrictions will , therefore, exper ience the same k ind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance. vi. R e d u c i n g taxes a n d regulations: The reduction of tax rates and r egu l a t i ons wou ld encourage private investment. vii . P r o m o t i n g r e s e a r c h a n d development: The primary reason that living standards are higher today than they were century ago is that technological knowledge has a d v a n c e d . A l t h o u g h mos t technological advances come from pr ivate research by firms and ind iv idua l i n v e n t o r s , the g o v e r n m e n t has a ro le in e n c o u r a g i n g the r e sea rch and development of new technologies. Using its fiscal policy instruments, the g o v e r n m e n t can gran t incentives to encourage research and development. Another way in which g o v e r n m e n t po l icy encourages research is through the pa t en t sy s t em. By a l l o w i n g i n v e n t o r s to prof i t f rom the i r i n v e n t i o n s , the pa t en t sys tem e n h a n c e s the i n c e n t i v e for individuals and firms to engage in research. D i s a d v a n t a g e s o f E c o n o m i c Growth In recent years, serious questions have been ra ised a b o u t the desirability of continued economic g rowth for a l r eady aff luent societies. The following interrelated a r g u m e n t s c o m p r i s e the anti- growth sentiment: i. Environmental concerns: Fast g r o w t h o f p r o d u c t i o n and consumption can create negative e x t e r n a l i t i e s (for e x a m p l e , i nc reased noise and l o w e r air quality arising from air pollution and road congestion, rapid growth of household and industrial waste). Growth that leads to environmental damage can have a negative effect on the people's quality of life and m a y a l so i m p e d e a c o u n t r y ' s sustainable rate of growth. i i . H u m a n o b s o l e s c e n c e : T h e changing technology that is the core of growth, poses new anxieties and new s o u r c e s of insecur i ty for workers. Bath high-level and low- level workers face the prospect of having their hard-earned skills and experience made obsolete by an o n r u s h i n g t e c h n o l o g y , thus becoming structurally unemployed. i l l . O p p o r t u n i t y cost: T h e opportunity cost of higher economic growth is the sacrifice of current consumption which could otherwise h a v e been en joyed . C u r r e n t consumption is being sacrificed to a c h i e v e a h igher ra te of consumption in the future. iv. Inflation risk: If the economy grows too fast too quickly, there is the danger of inflation as demand raises ahead of aggregate supply. v. I n e q u i t y in I n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n : Rap id e c o n o m i c growth could result in disparities in income distribution. H p l a c e , at l eas t in d e v e l o p e d countries with significant chemical industries. Allowing for the fact that several States have yet to sign or ratify the CWC, the treaty works well, and has made the world a safer place dur ing the past 14 years or so. However, the frightening possibility that a terrorist organisation may acquire chemical weapons looms o v e r us . T h e answer l ies in i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n , m e t i c u l o u s m o n i t o r i n g , and unending vigilance. Acknowledgement T h e author thanks the OPCW for the opportunity to undergo training in their Associates program in 2004. • Contd. from page 31 manufacture sarin. Their first major use of it w a s in 1994, at an apartment complex in Matsumoto, apparently chosen because a judge, who was hearing a case against them, lived there. Eight people died and over 200 were hospitalised, but investigators failed to identify the Aum Shinrikyo as the culprits. Their next attack was the spectacular, coordinated release of sarin on five trains in the Tokyo subway system, on the 2 0 t h of March, 1995. This resulted in 12 deaths and over 1,000 injuries. This time, the police were finally ab le to ident i fy those responsible, and Shoko Asahara was tried and sentenced to death. Organ i sa t i ons exis t , w h e t h e r formally labelled "terrorist" or not, which do not consider themselves to be bound by in t e rna t iona l treaties or national laws, and for whom chemical weapons may be a cheap and easy way of developing the capacity to carry our major a t t acks aga ins t u n p r o t e c t e d civilians. The actions o f the Aum Shinrikyo have brought this fact to the wor ld ' s a t t en t i on in no uncertain terms. While the CWC is designed to cover this eventuality, it can only succeed with the willing cooperation at the highest level of its signatories, and the alertness of the O P C W , the Na t iona l Author i t ies , and the numerous a g e n c i e s c h a r g e d wi th implementing the C W C , such as customs, law enforcement, defence, and intelligence agencies of member States. These factors are mostly in 39 Economic Review: June/July 201 1